Essex hosepipe bans remain as Met Office forecasts El Niño

The Met Office has said the natural climate pattern, which develops as surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific warm, is forecast to become exceptionally strong in the coming months.

El Niño is officially declared when sea temperatures in the region rise 0.5C above the long-term average. This year’s event is forecast to exceed 3C, which the Met Office has described as potentially the largest since the 19th century.

The pattern can alter weather around the world, increasing the likelihood of drought in some tropical regions while raising the prospect of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK, during the autumn and early part of winter.

Professor Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s head of long-range forecasting, said: “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event.

“I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”

However, residents should not expect a few wet days to resolve the water shortage affecting Essex and much of England.

The Environment Agency’s latest drought report says East Anglia remains in drought, with 71% of England now affected. Reservoir storage across England stood at 65.9% on August 11, nearly 14 percentage points below the long-term average for the time of year, while Hanningfield Reservoir in Essex was among five reservoirs classified as exceptionally low.

A hosepipe ban has been introduced for most of Essex (Image: Canva)

Essex and Suffolk Water has confirmed that its temporary use ban — commonly known as a hosepipe ban — remains in force across its entire supply area. The company said continued dry weather and high demand had left Hanningfield and Abberton reservoirs below their usual seasonal levels, with customers using an extra 29 million litres of water each day.

The restrictions mean customers supplied by Essex and Suffolk Water must continue to avoid using hosepipes for activities such as watering gardens, washing cars and filling paddling pools.

The company’s supply area covers much of Essex, including areas around Chelmsford, Southend, Basildon, Brentwood and Harlow.

Other parts of Essex may be supplied by different companies. Affinity Water’s temporary use ban also covers parts of Essex in its central region, while Anglian Water’s ban applies across its supply area apart from Hartlepool.

Residents are being urged to check their water bill or supplier’s website to confirm the rules that apply at their address.

For the immediate outlook, the Met Office has forecast a cooler and breezier spell for much of the UK, with sunny intervals and scattered showers, some potentially heavy and thundery across parts of England.

Reservoirs across Essex are lower than usual due to the recent dry weather (Image: Chelmsford City Council)

Temperatures are expected to reach the low 20s in southern areas, with showers easing later and overnight conditions turning cooler.

While rain may offer temporary relief, drought recovery depends on prolonged and widespread rainfall that can recharge rivers, reservoirs and groundwater — rather than short, intense showers falling on hard, parched ground.

The Environment Agency has warned that recent dry conditions have left soils compacted, increasing the risk of run-off when heavy rain does arrive. It said low river flows, groundwater levels and reservoir stocks remain under pressure despite the changing weather pattern.

A Met Office scientist, Dr Nick Dunstone, said large El Niño events transfer additional heat from the ocean into the atmosphere and can influence global temperatures in the following calendar year. The agency has said 2027 could become the world’s warmest year on record if current projections are borne out.